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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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489graded matches
0.5867Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9873Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 11 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.0%7.9%38
10–20%15.9%12.7%205
20–30%25.1%25.9%575
30–40%34.5%32.6%230
40–50%44.8%49.1%173
50–60%54.9%57.9%126
60–70%64.5%52.6%76
70–80%73.5%86.2%29
80–90%84.4%88.9%9
90–100%92.9%83.3%6

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (489)

Updated 19 Oct 2026 · 07:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 1a Divisió · Andorra
    Carroi Sporting Escaldes
    Home50.51% Draw23.96% Away25.54%
    0–1 Missed
  2. Published 1a Divisió · Andorra
    Carroi Sporting Escaldes
    Home50.74% Draw23.87% Away25.38%
    0–1 Missed
  3. Published 1a Divisió · Andorra
    Carroi Sporting Escaldes
    Home50.74% Draw23.87% Away25.38%
    0–1 Missed
  4. Published 1a Divisió · Andorra
    Carroi Sporting Escaldes
    Home50.74% Draw23.87% Away25.38%
    0–1 Missed
  5. Published 1a Divisió · Andorra
    Carroi Sporting Escaldes
    Home50.76% Draw23.87% Away25.37%
    0–1 Missed
  6. Published 1a Divisió · Andorra
    Carroi Sporting Escaldes
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.