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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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494graded matches
0.5314Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9046Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 6 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.0%4.8%83
10–20%15.9%11.3%230
20–30%24.8%24.5%530
30–40%34.7%29.9%197
40–50%44.9%49.7%175
50–60%54.6%57.0%114
60–70%64.5%73.9%69
70–80%74.9%84.0%50
80–90%83.9%81.8%22
90–100%94.3%100.0%12

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (494)

Updated 15 Oct 2026 · 18:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Spain
    San Javier Bullas Deportivo
    Home59.13% Draw23.50% Away17.37%
    Awaiting result
  2. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Spain
    San Javier Bullas Deportivo
    Home53.83% Draw25.45% Away20.72%
    Awaiting result
  3. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Spain
    San Javier Bullas Deportivo
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.