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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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495graded matches
0.5700Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9623Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 5 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.3%6.8%44
10–20%16.2%10.8%203
20–30%25.3%25.2%576
30–40%34.6%33.5%245
40–50%44.7%50.0%176
50–60%55.1%58.1%124
60–70%64.4%58.0%69
70–80%73.7%90.6%32
80–90%85.1%91.7%12
90–100%93.9%75.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (495)

Updated 18 Oct 2026 · 14:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    SD Logroñés Náxara
    Home50.27% Draw27.01% Away22.72%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    SD Logroñés Náxara
    Home50.27% Draw27.01% Away22.72%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    SD Logroñés Náxara
    Home52.07% Draw26.50% Away21.42%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    SD Logroñés Náxara
    Home39.79% Draw28.76% Away31.45%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    SD Logroñés Náxara
    Home39.79% Draw28.76% Away31.45%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    SD Logroñés Náxara
    Home40.45% Draw27.94% Away31.61%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.