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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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488graded matches
0.5538Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9400Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 12 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.2%6.3%32
10–20%16.3%11.4%184
20–30%24.7%21.4%575
30–40%34.8%34.6%266
40–50%44.8%50.6%168
50–60%54.8%59.1%132
60–70%64.3%81.7%71
70–80%74.7%80.0%25
80–90%84.0%80.0%10
90–100%95.6%100.0%1

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (488)

Updated 04 Nov 2026 · 00:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Meistaradeildin · Faroe Islands
    B36 Torshavn Skála
    Home56.20% Draw22.39% Away21.41%
    3–3 Missed
  2. Published Meistaradeildin · Faroe Islands
    B36 Torshavn Skála
    Home56.20% Draw22.39% Away21.41%
    3–3 Missed
  3. Published Meistaradeildin · Faroe Islands
    B36 Torshavn Skála
    Home55.14% Draw23.77% Away21.09%
    3–3 Missed
  4. Published Meistaradeildin · Faroe Islands
    B36 Torshavn Skála
    Home44.37% Draw24.62% Away31.01%
    3–3 Missed
  5. Published Meistaradeildin · Faroe Islands
    B36 Torshavn Skála
    Home44.36% Draw24.62% Away31.01%
    3–3 Missed
  6. Published Meistaradeildin · Faroe Islands
    B36 Torshavn Skála
    Home43.20% Draw24.69% Away32.11%
    3–3 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.