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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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479graded matches
0.5699Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9630Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 21 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.2%11.7%77
10–20%16.2%12.6%190
20–30%24.8%23.9%536
30–40%34.2%33.2%205
40–50%44.7%49.2%181
50–60%54.4%57.5%113
60–70%64.4%63.1%65
70–80%75.2%81.0%42
80–90%83.4%56.3%16
90–100%93.8%100.0%12

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (479)

Updated 23 Oct 2026 · 08:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Second League - Group 2 · Russia
    Luki-Energiya Spartak Moscow 2
    Home60.24% Draw23.73% Away16.03%
    2–2 Missed
  2. Published Second League - Group 2 · Russia
    Luki-Energiya Spartak Moscow 2
    Home60.24% Draw23.73% Away16.03%
    2–2 Missed
  3. Published Second League - Group 2 · Russia
    Luki-Energiya Spartak Moscow 2
    Home60.24% Draw23.73% Away16.03%
    2–2 Missed
  4. Published Second League - Group 2 · Russia
    Luki-Energiya Spartak Moscow 2
    Home54.30% Draw25.16% Away20.54%
    2–2 Missed
  5. Published Second League - Group 2 · Russia
    Luki-Energiya Spartak Moscow 2
    Home58.21% Draw24.15% Away17.64%
    2–2 Missed
  6. Published Second League - Group 2 · Russia
    Luki-Energiya Spartak Moscow 2
    Home59.97% Draw23.56% Away16.47%
    2–2 Missed
  7. Published Second League - Group 2 · Russia
    Luki-Energiya Spartak Moscow 2
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.