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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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479graded matches
0.5865Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9854Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 21 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.4%11.5%78
10–20%16.0%14.4%201
20–30%24.8%25.7%529
30–40%34.1%34.8%201
40–50%44.9%44.6%175
50–60%54.4%54.1%111
60–70%64.6%62.1%66
70–80%75.0%72.9%48
80–90%83.5%61.1%18
90–100%93.2%100.0%10

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (479)

Updated 23 Oct 2026 · 12:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Cornellà San Juan Atletico de Montcada
    Home63.05% Draw22.45% Away14.49%
    1–3 Missed
  2. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Cornellà San Juan Atletico de Montcada
    Home63.10% Draw22.41% Away14.49%
    1–3 Missed
  3. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Cornellà San Juan Atletico de Montcada
    Home63.10% Draw22.41% Away14.49%
    1–3 Missed
  4. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Cornellà San Juan Atletico de Montcada
    Home63.10% Draw22.41% Away14.49%
    1–3 Missed
  5. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Cornellà San Juan Atletico de Montcada
    Home63.65% Draw22.18% Away14.16%
    1–3 Missed
  6. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Cornellà San Juan Atletico de Montcada
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  7. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Cornellà San Juan Atletico de Montcada
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.