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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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492graded matches
0.5820Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9758Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 8 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.6%2.0%50
10–20%16.3%16.1%199
20–30%24.9%25.4%559
30–40%34.5%33.3%240
40–50%44.8%45.7%184
50–60%54.8%54.5%132
60–70%64.9%61.2%67
70–80%75.0%83.3%24
80–90%84.6%92.3%13
90–100%95.5%100.0%8

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (492)

Updated 20 Oct 2026 · 19:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published First League · Russia
    Enisey Torpedo Moskva
    Home27.02% Draw27.85% Away45.12%
    1–2 Correct pick
  2. Published First League · Russia
    Enisey Torpedo Moskva
    Home27.21% Draw27.26% Away45.53%
    1–2 Correct pick
  3. Published First League · Russia
    Enisey Torpedo Moskva
    Home26.62% Draw26.59% Away46.79%
    1–2 Correct pick
  4. Published First League · Russia
    Enisey Torpedo Moskva
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  5. Published First League · Russia
    Enisey Torpedo Moskva
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  6. Published First League · Russia
    Enisey Torpedo Moskva
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.