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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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490graded matches
0.5891Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9868Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 10 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.0%0.0%38
10–20%16.0%16.6%193
20–30%25.2%25.2%579
30–40%34.4%31.5%241
40–50%44.8%50.5%182
50–60%54.7%56.8%125
60–70%65.2%54.7%75
70–80%73.6%81.8%22
80–90%84.5%87.5%8
90–100%93.2%100.0%7

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (490)

Updated 19 Oct 2026 · 17:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published League Two · Scotland
    Kelty Hearts Forfar Athletic
    Home45.63% Draw25.69% Away28.68%
    2–1 Correct pick
  2. Published League Two · Scotland
    Kelty Hearts Forfar Athletic
    Home44.28% Draw25.79% Away29.93%
    2–1 Correct pick
  3. Published League Two · Scotland
    Kelty Hearts Forfar Athletic
    Home50.74% Draw24.42% Away24.84%
    2–1 Correct pick
  4. Published League Two · Scotland
    Kelty Hearts Forfar Athletic
    Home50.74% Draw24.42% Away24.84%
    2–1 Correct pick
  5. Published League Two · Scotland
    Kelty Hearts Forfar Athletic
    Home52.45% Draw24.02% Away23.53%
    2–1 Correct pick
  6. Published League Two · Scotland
    Kelty Hearts Forfar Athletic
    Home49.41% Draw24.35% Away26.24%
    2–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.