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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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479graded matches
0.5645Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9544Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 21 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%9.5%74
10–20%16.2%12.6%191
20–30%24.8%23.4%534
30–40%34.2%34.6%211
40–50%44.7%48.6%183
50–60%54.6%57.3%110
60–70%64.2%65.7%67
70–80%75.3%84.6%39
80–90%83.4%56.3%16
90–100%93.8%100.0%12

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (479)

Updated 22 Oct 2026 · 22:31 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Championship · Scotland
    Stenhousemuir Raith Rovers
    Home29.67% Draw28.44% Away41.88%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published Championship · Scotland
    Stenhousemuir Raith Rovers
    Home29.42% Draw28.37% Away42.21%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published Championship · Scotland
    Stenhousemuir Raith Rovers
    Home28.01% Draw28.27% Away43.72%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published Championship · Scotland
    Stenhousemuir Raith Rovers
    Home29.72% Draw28.44% Away41.85%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published Championship · Scotland
    Stenhousemuir Raith Rovers
    Home39.26% Draw30.46% Away30.28%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published Championship · Scotland
    Stenhousemuir Raith Rovers
    Home42.57% Draw30.17% Away27.26%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.