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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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494graded matches
0.5536Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9391Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 6 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%6.3%48
10–20%15.8%12.4%210
20–30%24.9%22.5%560
30–40%34.8%33.2%238
40–50%44.9%50.8%183
50–60%54.5%58.2%110
60–70%64.2%74.4%78
70–80%74.7%83.3%36
80–90%84.2%73.3%15
90–100%95.4%100.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (494)

Updated 09 Nov 2026 · 19:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Regionalliga - Nord · Germany
    Hamburger SV II VfB Oldenburg
    Home25.48% Draw21.32% Away53.19%
    1–2 Correct pick
  2. Published Regionalliga - Nord · Germany
    Hamburger SV II VfB Oldenburg
    Home25.48% Draw21.32% Away53.19%
    1–2 Correct pick
  3. Published Regionalliga - Nord · Germany
    Hamburger SV II VfB Oldenburg
    Home25.48% Draw21.32% Away53.19%
    1–2 Correct pick
  4. Published Regionalliga - Nord · Germany
    Hamburger SV II VfB Oldenburg
    Home25.48% Draw21.32% Away53.19%
    1–2 Correct pick
  5. Published Regionalliga - Nord · Germany
    Hamburger SV II VfB Oldenburg
    Home13.87% Draw16.75% Away69.38%
    1–2 Correct pick
  6. Published Regionalliga - Nord · Germany
    Hamburger SV II VfB Oldenburg
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.