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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.5498Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9342Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.7%10.8%74
10–20%16.0%11.6%233
20–30%24.5%23.6%522
30–40%34.9%32.9%225
40–50%44.5%48.5%165
50–60%54.6%57.7%123
60–70%64.7%72.5%69
70–80%75.4%75.9%54
80–90%84.9%86.4%22
90–100%93.9%100.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (496) · Earlier models (1)

Updated 24 Oct 2026 · 09:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 2. Division · Denmark
    Skive FA 2000
    Home50.01% Draw25.78% Away24.20%
    2–0 Correct pick
  2. Published 2. Division · Denmark
    Skive FA 2000
    Home49.82% Draw25.82% Away24.36%
    2–0 Correct pick
  3. Published 2. Division · Denmark
    Skive FA 2000
    Home48.70% Draw25.65% Away25.65%
    2–0 Correct pick
  4. Published 2. Division · Denmark
    Skive FA 2000
    Home43.25% Draw26.48% Away30.26%
    2–0 Correct pick
  5. Published 2. Division · Denmark
    Skive FA 2000
    Home43.25% Draw26.48% Away30.26%
    2–0 Correct pick
  6. Published 2. Division · Denmark
    Skive FA 2000
    Home43.18% Draw26.51% Away30.32%
    2–0 Correct pick
  7. Published 2. Division · Denmark
    Skive FA 2000
    Home44.49% Draw27.15% Away28.36%
    2–0 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.