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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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489graded matches
0.5539Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9360Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 11 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.3%1.9%54
10–20%16.0%12.2%189
20–30%24.8%23.6%560
30–40%34.9%38.5%244
40–50%44.6%41.0%183
50–60%54.3%56.0%116
60–70%64.5%75.4%61
70–80%74.6%87.9%33
80–90%82.9%85.7%21
90–100%92.8%100.0%6

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (489)

Updated 17 Oct 2026 · 02:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published League One · England
    Milton Keynes Dons Luton
    Home29.89% Draw24.84% Away45.26%
    Awaiting result
  2. Published League One · England
    Milton Keynes Dons Luton
    Home31.38% Draw24.94% Away43.68%
    Awaiting result
  3. Published League One · England
    Milton Keynes Dons Luton
    Home33.01% Draw25.17% Away41.81%
    Awaiting result
  4. Published League One · England
    Milton Keynes Dons Luton
    Home33.29% Draw25.19% Away41.52%
    Awaiting result
  5. Published League One · England
    Milton Keynes Dons Luton
    Home30.64% Draw24.78% Away44.58%
    Awaiting result
  6. Published League One · England
    Milton Keynes Dons Luton
    Home31.80% Draw25.71% Away42.48%
    Awaiting result

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.