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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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489graded matches
0.5591Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9436Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 11 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.5%4.9%81
10–20%15.8%15.7%230
20–30%24.8%25.6%512
30–40%34.5%32.5%212
40–50%44.7%42.9%168
50–60%54.3%56.1%98
60–70%64.2%64.0%86
70–80%74.5%76.1%46
80–90%84.7%89.5%19
90–100%94.9%100.0%15

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (489)

Updated 30 Oct 2026 · 01:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published FNL · Czech Republic
    Karviná Dukla Praha
    Home49.93% Draw23.90% Away26.17%
    3–0 Correct pick
  2. Published FNL · Czech Republic
    Karviná Dukla Praha
    Home53.79% Draw22.81% Away23.41%
    3–0 Correct pick
  3. Published FNL · Czech Republic
    Karviná Dukla Praha
    Home53.79% Draw22.81% Away23.41%
    3–0 Correct pick
  4. Published FNL · Czech Republic
    Karviná Dukla Praha
    Home42.80% Draw25.83% Away31.38%
    3–0 Correct pick
  5. Published FNL · Czech Republic
    Karviná Dukla Praha
    Home42.73% Draw26.13% Away31.15%
    3–0 Correct pick
  6. Published FNL · Czech Republic
    Karviná Dukla Praha
    Home43.05% Draw26.06% Away30.88%
    3–0 Correct pick
  7. Published FNL · Czech Republic
    Karviná Dukla Praha
    Home44.73% Draw25.27% Away30.00%
    3–0 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.