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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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488graded matches
0.5883Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9822Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 12 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.7%3.3%61
10–20%16.2%19.6%209
20–30%24.7%25.1%538
30–40%34.3%34.1%229
40–50%44.6%43.9%164
50–60%54.4%54.3%127
60–70%64.3%59.0%78
70–80%74.7%74.2%31
80–90%84.7%72.2%18
90–100%94.4%100.0%9

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (488)

Updated 31 Oct 2026 · 00:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Esiliiga B · Estonia
    Johvi Phoenix Luunja
    Home46.47% Draw19.59% Away33.93%
    1–3 Missed
  2. Published Esiliiga B · Estonia
    Johvi Phoenix Luunja
    Home48.61% Draw19.24% Away32.15%
    1–3 Missed
  3. Published Esiliiga B · Estonia
    Johvi Phoenix Luunja
    Home48.61% Draw19.24% Away32.15%
    1–3 Missed
  4. Published Esiliiga B · Estonia
    Johvi Phoenix Luunja
    Home56.66% Draw18.62% Away24.72%
    1–3 Missed
  5. Published Esiliiga B · Estonia
    Johvi Phoenix Luunja
    Home59.25% Draw17.81% Away22.94%
    1–3 Missed
  6. Published Esiliiga B · Estonia
    Johvi Phoenix Luunja
    Home56.82% Draw18.55% Away24.62%
    1–3 Missed
  7. Published Esiliiga B · Estonia
    Johvi Phoenix Luunja
    Home59.76% Draw17.65% Away22.59%
    1–3 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.