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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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491graded matches
0.5789Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9715Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 9 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.5%2.0%50
10–20%16.3%15.9%201
20–30%24.9%25.1%554
30–40%34.6%33.3%243
40–50%44.8%46.4%181
50–60%54.8%54.2%131
60–70%64.9%62.7%67
70–80%75.0%83.3%24
80–90%84.3%92.9%14
90–100%95.5%100.0%8

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (491)

Updated 20 Oct 2026 · 23:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published USL Championship · United States
    Rhode Island Loudoun United
    Home60.64% Draw21.58% Away17.78%
    1–0 Correct pick
  2. Published USL Championship · United States
    Rhode Island Loudoun United
    Home60.37% Draw21.66% Away17.97%
    1–0 Correct pick
  3. Published USL Championship · United States
    Rhode Island Loudoun United
    Home56.05% Draw24.82% Away19.13%
    1–0 Correct pick
  4. Published USL Championship · United States
    Rhode Island Loudoun United
    Home60.82% Draw23.13% Away16.05%
    1–0 Correct pick
  5. Published USL Championship · United States
    Rhode Island Loudoun United
    Home60.91% Draw23.06% Away16.02%
    1–0 Correct pick
  6. Published USL Championship · United States
    Rhode Island Loudoun United
    Home60.91% Draw23.06% Away16.03%
    1–0 Correct pick
  7. Published USL Championship · United States
    Rhode Island Loudoun United
    Home59.07% Draw23.56% Away17.37%
    1–0 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.