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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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487graded matches
0.5537Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9375Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 13 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.8%0.0%29
10–20%16.3%10.7%159
20–30%25.0%21.9%611
30–40%34.7%33.1%254
40–50%44.9%53.0%185
50–60%54.5%59.5%126
60–70%64.4%76.1%67
70–80%75.6%95.2%21
80–90%82.6%85.7%7
90–100%95.2%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (487)

Updated 03 Nov 2026 · 02:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    East Kilbride Kelty Hearts
    Home66.17% Draw17.57% Away16.25%
    2–1 Correct pick
  2. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    East Kilbride Kelty Hearts
    Home75.15% Draw13.64% Away11.21%
    2–1 Correct pick
  3. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    East Kilbride Kelty Hearts
    Home74.68% Draw13.80% Away11.51%
    2–1 Correct pick
  4. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    East Kilbride Kelty Hearts
    Home74.68% Draw13.80% Away11.51%
    2–1 Correct pick
  5. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    East Kilbride Kelty Hearts
    Home74.68% Draw13.80% Away11.52%
    2–1 Correct pick
  6. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    East Kilbride Kelty Hearts
    Home74.68% Draw13.81% Away11.52%
    2–1 Correct pick
  7. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    East Kilbride Kelty Hearts
    Home75.84% Draw13.25% Away10.90%
    2–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.