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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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487graded matches
0.5563Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9405Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 13 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%0.0%29
10–20%16.2%10.4%163
20–30%25.0%22.3%602
30–40%34.6%33.1%260
40–50%44.8%53.0%185
50–60%54.6%59.3%123
60–70%64.6%75.4%69
70–80%75.4%94.7%19
80–90%82.9%77.8%9
90–100%95.2%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (487)

Updated 02 Nov 2026 · 20:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published National League Cup · England
    Solihull Moors Everton U21
    Home38.90% Draw24.09% Away37.01%
    1–0 Correct pick
  2. Published National League Cup · England
    Solihull Moors Everton U21
    Home26.08% Draw22.87% Away51.05%
    1–0 Missed
  3. Published National League Cup · England
    Solihull Moors Everton U21
    Home29.67% Draw23.63% Away46.70%
    1–0 Missed
  4. Published National League Cup · England
    Solihull Moors Everton U21
    Home29.67% Draw23.63% Away46.70%
    1–0 Missed
  5. Published National League Cup · England
    Solihull Moors Everton U21
    Home29.67% Draw23.62% Away46.70%
    1–0 Missed
  6. Published National League Cup · England
    Solihull Moors Everton U21
    Home29.67% Draw23.62% Away46.70%
    1–0 Missed
  7. Published National League Cup · England
    Solihull Moors Everton U21
    Home25.76% Draw22.90% Away51.34%
    1–0 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.