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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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496graded matches
0.5607Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9504Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 4 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%7.6%66
10–20%16.0%10.7%224
20–30%24.5%25.6%542
30–40%34.7%33.2%223
40–50%44.7%47.5%158
50–60%54.5%52.4%126
60–70%64.6%72.7%77
70–80%74.9%75.5%49
80–90%84.1%89.5%19
90–100%94.5%75.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (496)

Updated 24 Oct 2026 · 01:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Oldham Leeds United U21
    Home65.77% Draw18.94% Away15.29%
    4–2 Correct pick
  2. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Oldham Leeds United U21
    Home69.19% Draw16.91% Away13.90%
    4–2 Correct pick
  3. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Oldham Leeds United U21
    Home69.93% Draw16.48% Away13.58%
    4–2 Correct pick
  4. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Oldham Leeds United U21
    Home71.88% Draw15.78% Away12.34%
    4–2 Correct pick
  5. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Oldham Leeds United U21
    Home71.88% Draw15.78% Away12.34%
    4–2 Correct pick
  6. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Oldham Leeds United U21
    Home71.81% Draw15.83% Away12.35%
    4–2 Correct pick
  7. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Oldham Leeds United U21
    Home59.36% Draw19.62% Away21.01%
    4–2 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.