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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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Model
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494graded matches
0.5967Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0031Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 6 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.4%13.6%44
10–20%16.1%14.6%219
20–30%24.8%26.8%557
30–40%34.2%31.3%224
40–50%44.3%46.3%177
50–60%54.8%48.4%128
60–70%64.1%65.5%84
70–80%74.3%81.8%33
80–90%85.5%66.7%12
90–100%93.1%75.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (494)

Updated 26 Oct 2026 · 10:31 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published First League · Armenia
    Bentonit Ijevan Sardarapat 2
    Home80.48% Draw12.16% Away7.36%
    3–2 Correct pick
  2. Published First League · Armenia
    Bentonit Ijevan Sardarapat 2
    Home80.48% Draw12.16% Away7.36%
    3–2 Correct pick
  3. Published First League · Armenia
    Bentonit Ijevan Sardarapat 2
    Home66.49% Draw18.86% Away14.65%
    3–2 Correct pick
  4. Published First League · Armenia
    Bentonit Ijevan Sardarapat 2
    Home66.34% Draw18.94% Away14.72%
    3–2 Correct pick
  5. Published First League · Armenia
    Bentonit Ijevan Sardarapat 2
    Home66.34% Draw18.94% Away14.72%
    3–2 Correct pick
  6. Published First League · Armenia
    Bentonit Ijevan Sardarapat 2
    Home66.34% Draw18.94% Away14.72%
    3–2 Correct pick
  7. Published First League · Armenia
    Bentonit Ijevan Sardarapat 2
    Home66.33% Draw18.95% Away14.73%
    3–2 Correct pick
  8. Published First League · Armenia
    Bentonit Ijevan Sardarapat 2
    Home66.34% Draw18.94% Away14.72%
    3–2 Correct pick
  9. Published First League · Armenia
    Bentonit Ijevan Sardarapat 2
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  10. Published First League · Armenia
    Bentonit Ijevan Sardarapat 2
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.