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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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490graded matches
0.5923Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9928Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 10 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.7%2.2%46
10–20%16.0%17.9%207
20–30%25.0%26.3%562
30–40%34.4%29.8%228
40–50%44.7%48.3%174
50–60%54.7%53.4%133
60–70%65.1%56.0%75
70–80%74.0%81.5%27
80–90%85.1%90.0%10
90–100%94.8%100.0%8

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (490)

Updated 20 Oct 2026 · 11:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D · Portugal
    Vitoria Setubal Real
    Home27.04% Draw25.26% Away47.71%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D · Portugal
    Vitoria Setubal Real
    Home27.04% Draw25.26% Away47.70%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D · Portugal
    Vitoria Setubal Real
    Home27.04% Draw25.26% Away47.70%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D · Portugal
    Vitoria Setubal Real
    Home26.92% Draw25.25% Away47.83%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D · Portugal
    Vitoria Setubal Real
    Home32.72% Draw26.40% Away40.89%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D · Portugal
    Vitoria Setubal Real
    Home32.72% Draw26.40% Away40.89%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D · Portugal
    Vitoria Setubal Real
    Home32.71% Draw26.41% Away40.88%
    1–1 Missed
  8. Published Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D · Portugal
    Vitoria Setubal Real
    Home35.46% Draw26.57% Away37.97%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.