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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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481graded matches
0.5650Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9552Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 19 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%9.6%73
10–20%16.3%12.1%190
20–30%24.8%23.6%538
30–40%34.2%34.4%215
40–50%44.8%48.4%184
50–60%54.6%58.0%112
60–70%64.4%67.2%67
70–80%75.6%83.8%37
80–90%83.3%53.3%15
90–100%93.8%100.0%12

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (481)

Updated 22 Oct 2026 · 17:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · Portugal
    Os Marialvas Sertanense
    Home56.08% Draw25.52% Away18.40%
    0–0 Missed
  2. Published Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · Portugal
    Os Marialvas Sertanense
    Home56.08% Draw25.52% Away18.40%
    0–0 Missed
  3. Published Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · Portugal
    Os Marialvas Sertanense
    Home65.57% Draw22.20% Away12.24%
    0–0 Missed
  4. Published Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · Portugal
    Os Marialvas Sertanense
    Home65.57% Draw22.20% Away12.24%
    0–0 Missed
  5. Published Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · Portugal
    Os Marialvas Sertanense
    Home65.53% Draw22.21% Away12.26%
    0–0 Missed
  6. Published Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · Portugal
    Os Marialvas Sertanense
    Home65.53% Draw22.21% Away12.26%
    0–0 Missed
  7. Published Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · Portugal
    Os Marialvas Sertanense
    Home65.53% Draw22.21% Away12.26%
    0–0 Missed
  8. Published Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · Portugal
    Os Marialvas Sertanense
    Home65.55% Draw22.19% Away12.26%
    0–0 Missed
  9. Published Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · Portugal
    Os Marialvas Sertanense
    Home64.14% Draw22.74% Away13.12%
    0–0 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.