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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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485graded matches
0.5391Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9181Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 15 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.1%4.8%42
10–20%16.2%9.3%214
20–30%25.0%22.8%539
30–40%34.3%34.8%244
40–50%44.7%47.3%167
50–60%54.6%59.8%127
60–70%64.4%74.3%70
70–80%74.3%92.3%39
80–90%85.0%91.7%12
90–100%92.7%100.0%1

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (485)

Updated 27 Oct 2026 · 15:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published I Liga · Poland
    Stal Mielec Warta Poznań
    Home34.63% Draw24.51% Away40.85%
    2–1 Missed
  2. Published I Liga · Poland
    Stal Mielec Warta Poznań
    Home34.62% Draw24.53% Away40.85%
    2–1 Missed
  3. Published I Liga · Poland
    Stal Mielec Warta Poznań
    Home34.61% Draw24.56% Away40.83%
    2–1 Missed
  4. Published I Liga · Poland
    Stal Mielec Warta Poznań
    Home34.59% Draw24.52% Away40.89%
    2–1 Missed
  5. Published I Liga · Poland
    Stal Mielec Warta Poznań
    Home34.39% Draw24.44% Away41.17%
    2–1 Missed
  6. Published I Liga · Poland
    Stal Mielec Warta Poznań
    Home34.13% Draw24.27% Away41.60%
    2–1 Missed
  7. Published I Liga · Poland
    Stal Mielec Warta Poznań
    Home19.94% Draw20.42% Away59.64%
    2–1 Missed
  8. Published I Liga · Poland
    Stal Mielec Warta Poznań
    Home21.08% Draw20.90% Away58.02%
    2–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.