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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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492graded matches
0.5535Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9365Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 8 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.9%8.7%92
10–20%15.8%13.2%257
20–30%24.6%25.2%497
30–40%34.8%34.0%191
40–50%44.7%46.7%152
50–60%54.7%52.9%104
60–70%64.4%65.9%91
70–80%74.3%76.9%52
80–90%85.5%79.3%29
90–100%94.3%100.0%11

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (492)

Updated 29 Oct 2026 · 06:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Serie B · Brazil
    Nautico Recife Vila Nova
    Home36.50% Draw27.88% Away35.62%
    0–2 Missed
  2. Published Serie B · Brazil
    Nautico Recife Vila Nova
    Home42.21% Draw27.61% Away30.17%
    0–2 Missed
  3. Published Serie B · Brazil
    Nautico Recife Vila Nova
    Home42.88% Draw27.70% Away29.43%
    0–2 Missed
  4. Published Serie B · Brazil
    Nautico Recife Vila Nova
    Home43.08% Draw26.83% Away30.09%
    0–2 Missed
  5. Published Serie B · Brazil
    Nautico Recife Vila Nova
    Home42.94% Draw26.55% Away30.51%
    0–2 Missed
  6. Published Serie B · Brazil
    Nautico Recife Vila Nova
    Home42.94% Draw26.56% Away30.50%
    0–2 Missed
  7. Published Serie B · Brazil
    Nautico Recife Vila Nova
    Home41.41% Draw26.74% Away31.85%
    0–2 Missed
  8. Published Serie B · Brazil
    Nautico Recife Vila Nova
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.