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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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490graded matches
0.5897Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9889Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 10 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.6%2.3%44
10–20%16.0%17.5%212
20–30%25.0%25.8%559
30–40%34.5%31.0%229
40–50%44.8%48.9%176
50–60%54.7%54.3%129
60–70%65.1%55.8%77
70–80%73.6%80.8%26
80–90%84.8%88.9%9
90–100%93.8%100.0%9

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (490)

Updated 20 Oct 2026 · 09:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published First League · Bulgaria
    Botev Plovdiv Slavia Sofia
    Home56.63% Draw24.47% Away18.91%
    1–0 Correct pick
  2. Published First League · Bulgaria
    Botev Plovdiv Slavia Sofia
    Home55.50% Draw24.90% Away19.59%
    1–0 Correct pick
  3. Published First League · Bulgaria
    Botev Plovdiv Slavia Sofia
    Home55.46% Draw24.91% Away19.63%
    1–0 Correct pick
  4. Published First League · Bulgaria
    Botev Plovdiv Slavia Sofia
    Home55.41% Draw24.91% Away19.68%
    1–0 Correct pick
  5. Published First League · Bulgaria
    Botev Plovdiv Slavia Sofia
    Home53.66% Draw25.35% Away20.98%
    1–0 Correct pick
  6. Published First League · Bulgaria
    Botev Plovdiv Slavia Sofia
    Home51.11% Draw26.12% Away22.78%
    1–0 Correct pick
  7. Published First League · Bulgaria
    Botev Plovdiv Slavia Sofia
    Home51.09% Draw25.35% Away23.56%
    1–0 Correct pick
  8. Published First League · Bulgaria
    Botev Plovdiv Slavia Sofia
    Home51.30% Draw25.34% Away23.36%
    1–0 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.