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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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479graded matches
0.6113Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0169Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 21 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%4.5%44
10–20%16.4%17.2%163
20–30%25.2%27.7%582
30–40%34.8%34.8%244
40–50%44.9%41.1%190
50–60%55.0%49.6%119
60–70%64.4%64.8%54
70–80%75.7%68.0%25
80–90%83.0%81.8%11
90–100%95.5%100.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (478) · Earlier models (1)

Updated 25 Oct 2026 · 06:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Super League 1 · Greece
    PAOK Kalamata
    Home78.70% Draw14.30% Away7.01%
    1–3 Missed
  2. Published Super League 1 · Greece
    PAOK Kalamata
    Home78.51% Draw14.34% Away7.15%
    1–3 Missed
  3. Published Super League 1 · Greece
    PAOK Kalamata
    Home79.37% Draw13.79% Away6.83%
    1–3 Missed
  4. Published Super League 1 · Greece
    PAOK Kalamata
    Home76.25% Draw16.02% Away7.72%
    1–3 Missed
  5. Published Super League 1 · Greece
    PAOK Kalamata
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  6. Published Super League 1 · Greece
    PAOK Kalamata
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  7. Published Super League 1 · Greece
    PAOK Kalamata
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  8. Published Super League 1 · Greece
    PAOK Kalamata
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  9. Published Super League 1 · Greece
    PAOK Kalamata
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.