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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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484graded matches
0.5720Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9697Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 16 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.6%12.7%79
10–20%16.1%15.7%191
20–30%24.7%22.2%514
30–40%34.4%34.0%253
40–50%44.4%49.4%168
50–60%54.6%52.3%107
60–70%64.2%76.1%71
70–80%74.7%70.0%40
80–90%85.9%73.3%15
90–100%94.7%85.7%14

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (484)

Updated 14 Oct 2026 · 07:00 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published First NL · Croatia
    Mladost Ždralovi HNK Cibalia
    Home43.15% Draw27.28% Away29.56%
    2–1 Correct pick
  2. Published First NL · Croatia
    Mladost Ždralovi HNK Cibalia
    Home42.45% Draw28.45% Away29.10%
    2–1 Correct pick
  3. Published First NL · Croatia
    Mladost Ždralovi HNK Cibalia
    Home42.45% Draw28.45% Away29.11%
    2–1 Correct pick
  4. Published First NL · Croatia
    Mladost Ždralovi HNK Cibalia
    Home32.57% Draw29.68% Away37.75%
    2–1 Missed
  5. Published First NL · Croatia
    Mladost Ždralovi HNK Cibalia
    Home32.57% Draw29.68% Away37.75%
    2–1 Missed
  6. Published First NL · Croatia
    Mladost Ždralovi HNK Cibalia
    Home32.56% Draw29.69% Away37.74%
    2–1 Missed
  7. Published First NL · Croatia
    Mladost Ždralovi HNK Cibalia
    Home32.53% Draw29.71% Away37.76%
    2–1 Missed
  8. Published First NL · Croatia
    Mladost Ždralovi HNK Cibalia
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.