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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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490graded matches
0.5884Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9865Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 10 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.8%0.0%37
10–20%16.0%17.3%208
20–30%25.1%25.2%568
30–40%34.4%31.5%232
40–50%44.8%49.7%181
50–60%54.8%55.0%129
60–70%64.9%55.4%74
70–80%73.5%81.5%27
80–90%84.6%100.0%6
90–100%93.4%100.0%8

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (490)

Updated 19 Oct 2026 · 22:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Second League - Group 3 · Russia
    FK Spartak Tambov Ryazan
    Home47.16% Draw26.11% Away26.72%
    0–0 Missed
  2. Published Second League - Group 3 · Russia
    FK Spartak Tambov Ryazan
    Home46.78% Draw26.26% Away26.96%
    0–0 Missed
  3. Published Second League - Group 3 · Russia
    FK Spartak Tambov Ryazan
    Home35.48% Draw28.48% Away36.04%
    0–0 Missed
  4. Published Second League - Group 3 · Russia
    FK Spartak Tambov Ryazan
    Home35.48% Draw28.48% Away36.04%
    0–0 Missed
  5. Published Second League - Group 3 · Russia
    FK Spartak Tambov Ryazan
    Home35.48% Draw28.48% Away36.04%
    0–0 Missed
  6. Published Second League - Group 3 · Russia
    FK Spartak Tambov Ryazan
    Home35.48% Draw28.48% Away36.04%
    0–0 Missed
  7. Published Second League - Group 3 · Russia
    FK Spartak Tambov Ryazan
    Home35.48% Draw28.48% Away36.04%
    0–0 Missed
  8. Published Second League - Group 3 · Russia
    FK Spartak Tambov Ryazan
    Home38.45% Draw28.66% Away32.89%
    0–0 Missed
  9. Published Second League - Group 3 · Russia
    FK Spartak Tambov Ryazan
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.