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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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493graded matches
0.6009Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0024Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 7 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%4.9%41
10–20%16.5%20.7%193
20–30%24.7%23.7%587
30–40%34.8%37.0%230
40–50%45.0%46.2%182
50–60%54.7%50.4%131
60–70%64.3%63.4%71
70–80%74.4%72.4%29
80–90%84.7%66.7%12
90–100%93.9%100.0%3

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (493)

Updated 31 Oct 2026 · 09:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wisła Kraków II Jarosław
    Home42.42% Draw22.66% Away34.93%
    2–1 Correct pick
  2. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wisła Kraków II Jarosław
    Home42.42% Draw22.66% Away34.93%
    2–1 Correct pick
  3. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wisła Kraków II Jarosław
    Home38.87% Draw23.64% Away37.50%
    2–1 Correct pick
  4. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wisła Kraków II Jarosław
    Home38.87% Draw23.64% Away37.49%
    2–1 Correct pick
  5. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wisła Kraków II Jarosław
    Home38.87% Draw23.64% Away37.49%
    2–1 Correct pick
  6. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wisła Kraków II Jarosław
    Home38.87% Draw23.64% Away37.49%
    2–1 Correct pick
  7. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wisła Kraków II Jarosław
    Home38.87% Draw23.64% Away37.49%
    2–1 Correct pick
  8. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wisła Kraków II Jarosław
    Home43.19% Draw23.49% Away33.32%
    2–1 Correct pick
  9. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wisła Kraków II Jarosław
    Home37.62% Draw23.54% Away38.84%
    2–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.