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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.5926Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9918Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.8%10.5%38
10–20%16.2%16.4%159
20–30%25.4%22.0%601
30–40%34.5%39.4%287
40–50%44.4%45.5%187
50–60%54.3%59.7%124
60–70%64.2%62.5%56
70–80%74.3%60.9%23
80–90%84.1%86.7%15
90–100%98.3%100.0%1

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (497)

Updated 04 Oct 2026 · 19:59 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Championship · Northern Ireland
    Rathfriland Armagh City
    Home52.02% Draw24.57% Away23.41%
    Awaiting result
  2. Published Championship · Northern Ireland
    Rathfriland Armagh City
    Home47.69% Draw25.46% Away26.85%
    Awaiting result
  3. Published Championship · Northern Ireland
    Rathfriland Armagh City
    Home49.11% Draw24.64% Away26.25%
    Awaiting result

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.