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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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479graded matches
0.6073Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0108Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 21 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.4%4.3%47
10–20%16.4%17.7%175
20–30%25.2%27.4%569
30–40%34.7%35.3%238
40–50%44.8%39.7%189
50–60%55.0%51.3%113
60–70%64.3%65.1%63
70–80%75.4%65.4%26
80–90%82.8%83.3%12
90–100%95.3%100.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (478) · Earlier models (1)

Updated 25 Oct 2026 · 02:21 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Flekkerøy Odd II
    Home57.73% Draw19.58% Away22.69%
    0–1 Missed
  2. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Flekkerøy Odd II
    Home55.09% Draw19.66% Away25.24%
    0–1 Missed
  3. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Flekkerøy Odd II
    Home57.52% Draw20.36% Away22.12%
    0–1 Missed
  4. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Flekkerøy Odd II
    Home57.52% Draw20.36% Away22.12%
    0–1 Missed
  5. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Flekkerøy Odd II
    Home57.52% Draw20.36% Away22.12%
    0–1 Missed
  6. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Flekkerøy Odd II
    Home60.59% Draw19.66% Away19.75%
    0–1 Missed
  7. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Flekkerøy Odd II
    Home60.67% Draw19.63% Away19.70%
    0–1 Missed
  8. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Flekkerøy Odd II
    Home58.02% Draw20.26% Away21.72%
    0–1 Missed
  9. Published 3. Division - Girone 4 · Norway
    Flekkerøy Odd II
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.