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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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494graded matches
0.5976Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0016Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 6 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.7%15.2%33
10–20%16.3%14.5%172
20–30%24.8%24.4%603
30–40%34.7%31.9%251
40–50%44.6%49.2%187
50–60%54.6%58.8%136
60–70%63.9%63.0%54
70–80%73.1%62.9%35
80–90%85.7%88.9%9
90–100%93.5%50.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (494)

Updated 31 Oct 2026 · 19:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Always Ready Nacional Potosí
    Home60.52% Draw20.41% Away19.07%
    2–3 Missed
  2. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Always Ready Nacional Potosí
    Home60.35% Draw20.37% Away19.29%
    2–3 Missed
  3. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Always Ready Nacional Potosí
    Home59.21% Draw20.77% Away20.02%
    2–3 Missed
  4. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Always Ready Nacional Potosí
    Home59.22% Draw20.77% Away20.02%
    2–3 Missed
  5. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Always Ready Nacional Potosí
    Home59.28% Draw20.77% Away19.96%
    2–3 Missed
  6. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Always Ready Nacional Potosí
    Home56.50% Draw21.45% Away22.05%
    2–3 Missed
  7. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Always Ready Nacional Potosí
    Home57.41% Draw21.13% Away21.45%
    2–3 Missed
  8. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Always Ready Nacional Potosí
    Home66.93% Draw18.58% Away14.49%
    2–3 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.