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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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496graded matches
0.6031Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0056Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 4 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%6.0%50
10–20%16.3%14.4%181
20–30%25.0%27.4%580
30–40%34.6%36.0%250
40–50%44.5%40.1%197
50–60%54.7%54.7%117
60–70%64.5%59.1%66
70–80%75.2%76.7%30
80–90%83.9%66.7%12
90–100%93.8%100.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (495) · Earlier models (1)

Updated 24 Oct 2026 · 18:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published League Cup · United Arab Emirates
    Al Nasr Hatta SC
    Home64.86% Draw20.10% Away15.04%
    4–1 Correct pick
  2. Published League Cup · United Arab Emirates
    Al Nasr Hatta SC
    Home64.86% Draw20.10% Away15.04%
    4–1 Correct pick
  3. Published League Cup · United Arab Emirates
    Al Nasr Hatta SC
    Home57.94% Draw21.52% Away20.54%
    4–1 Correct pick
  4. Published League Cup · United Arab Emirates
    Al Nasr Hatta SC
    Home57.94% Draw21.52% Away20.54%
    4–1 Correct pick
  5. Published League Cup · United Arab Emirates
    Al Nasr Hatta SC
    Home57.94% Draw21.52% Away20.54%
    4–1 Correct pick
  6. Published League Cup · United Arab Emirates
    Al Nasr Hatta SC
    Home57.94% Draw21.52% Away20.54%
    4–1 Correct pick
  7. Published League Cup · United Arab Emirates
    Al Nasr Hatta SC
    Home57.64% Draw21.51% Away20.84%
    4–1 Correct pick
  8. Published League Cup · United Arab Emirates
    Al Nasr Hatta SC
    Home57.48% Draw21.46% Away21.06%
    4–1 Correct pick
  9. Published League Cup · United Arab Emirates
    Al Nasr Hatta SC
    Home55.50% Draw22.16% Away22.34%
    4–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.