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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.5981Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0031Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%13.0%46
10–20%16.0%15.0%226
20–30%24.9%27.6%554
30–40%34.5%30.0%227
40–50%44.4%46.9%179
50–60%54.7%46.3%123
60–70%64.1%63.0%81
70–80%74.4%79.5%39
80–90%84.5%83.3%12
90–100%93.1%75.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (497)

Updated 26 Oct 2026 · 02:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Copa do Brasil U20 · Brazil
    Botafogo U20 Bahia U20
    Home48.46% Draw23.51% Away28.02%
    1–0 Correct pick
  2. Published Copa do Brasil U20 · Brazil
    Botafogo U20 Bahia U20
    Home48.46% Draw23.51% Away28.02%
    1–0 Correct pick
  3. Published Copa do Brasil U20 · Brazil
    Botafogo U20 Bahia U20
    Home36.53% Draw20.59% Away42.88%
    1–0 Missed
  4. Published Copa do Brasil U20 · Brazil
    Botafogo U20 Bahia U20
    Home36.53% Draw20.59% Away42.88%
    1–0 Missed
  5. Published Copa do Brasil U20 · Brazil
    Botafogo U20 Bahia U20
    Home36.53% Draw20.59% Away42.88%
    1–0 Missed
  6. Published Copa do Brasil U20 · Brazil
    Botafogo U20 Bahia U20
    Home36.53% Draw20.59% Away42.88%
    1–0 Missed
  7. Published Copa do Brasil U20 · Brazil
    Botafogo U20 Bahia U20
    Home33.75% Draw20.87% Away45.38%
    1–0 Missed
  8. Published Copa do Brasil U20 · Brazil
    Botafogo U20 Bahia U20
    Home33.75% Draw20.87% Away45.38%
    1–0 Missed
  9. Published Copa do Brasil U20 · Brazil
    Botafogo U20 Bahia U20
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.