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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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480graded matches
0.5823Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9819Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 20 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.4%11.1%81
10–20%15.9%13.7%205
20–30%24.9%25.5%518
30–40%34.2%36.2%213
40–50%44.9%44.0%168
50–60%54.5%52.7%112
60–70%64.7%65.6%64
70–80%75.0%74.5%51
80–90%83.8%66.7%18
90–100%93.5%90.0%10

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (480)

Updated 23 Oct 2026 · 13:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Goiano - 2 · Brazil
    Bom Jesus EC Morrinhos
    Home52.75% Draw26.46% Away20.79%
    3–2 Correct pick
  2. Published Goiano - 2 · Brazil
    Bom Jesus EC Morrinhos
    Home52.75% Draw26.46% Away20.79%
    3–2 Correct pick
  3. Published Goiano - 2 · Brazil
    Bom Jesus EC Morrinhos
    Home63.86% Draw21.43% Away14.71%
    3–2 Correct pick
  4. Published Goiano - 2 · Brazil
    Bom Jesus EC Morrinhos
    Home63.86% Draw21.43% Away14.71%
    3–2 Correct pick
  5. Published Goiano - 2 · Brazil
    Bom Jesus EC Morrinhos
    Home64.02% Draw21.37% Away14.61%
    3–2 Correct pick
  6. Published Goiano - 2 · Brazil
    Bom Jesus EC Morrinhos
    Home59.84% Draw23.65% Away16.51%
    3–2 Correct pick
  7. Published Goiano - 2 · Brazil
    Bom Jesus EC Morrinhos
    Home59.89% Draw23.46% Away16.65%
    3–2 Correct pick
  8. Published Goiano - 2 · Brazil
    Bom Jesus EC Morrinhos
    Home59.89% Draw23.46% Away16.65%
    3–2 Correct pick
  9. Published Goiano - 2 · Brazil
    Bom Jesus EC Morrinhos
    Home58.82% Draw24.30% Away16.89%
    3–2 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.