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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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495graded matches
0.6102Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0160Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 5 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%6.5%46
10–20%16.6%16.0%175
20–30%25.1%27.4%588
30–40%34.7%36.2%257
40–50%44.6%40.3%196
50–60%54.9%53.4%118
60–70%64.3%57.1%63
70–80%74.9%74.1%27
80–90%83.9%70.0%10
90–100%93.8%100.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (494) · Earlier models (1)

Updated 24 Oct 2026 · 21:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Aurora ABB
    Home86.19% Draw10.29% Away3.52%
    2–0 Correct pick
  2. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Aurora ABB
    Home66.02% Draw18.67% Away15.31%
    2–0 Correct pick
  3. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Aurora ABB
    Home66.02% Draw18.67% Away15.31%
    2–0 Correct pick
  4. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Aurora ABB
    Home66.07% Draw18.66% Away15.26%
    2–0 Correct pick
  5. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Aurora ABB
    Home65.23% Draw19.04% Away15.73%
    2–0 Correct pick
  6. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Aurora ABB
    Home68.59% Draw17.70% Away13.71%
    2–0 Correct pick
  7. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Aurora ABB
    Home69.46% Draw17.32% Away13.22%
    2–0 Correct pick
  8. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Aurora ABB
    Home69.35% Draw17.32% Away13.32%
    2–0 Correct pick
  9. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Aurora ABB
    Home66.40% Draw18.29% Away15.31%
    2–0 Correct pick
  10. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Aurora ABB
    Home66.40% Draw18.29% Away15.31%
    2–0 Correct pick
  11. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Aurora ABB
    Home66.46% Draw18.28% Away15.26%
    2–0 Correct pick
  12. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Aurora ABB
    Home66.46% Draw18.28% Away15.26%
    2–0 Correct pick
  13. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Aurora ABB
    Home67.15% Draw17.82% Away15.03%
    2–0 Correct pick
  14. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Aurora ABB
    Home64.47% Draw21.07% Away14.46%
    2–0 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.