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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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496graded matches
0.5599Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9492Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 4 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%7.5%67
10–20%15.9%11.0%227
20–30%24.5%25.6%542
30–40%34.5%33.2%214
40–50%44.7%46.9%160
50–60%54.6%52.3%128
60–70%64.6%73.7%76
70–80%74.9%74.5%51
80–90%84.1%89.5%19
90–100%94.5%75.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (496)

Updated 23 Oct 2026 · 23:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published EFL Trophy · England
    AFC Wimbledon Barnet
    Home40.42% Draw24.72% Away34.86%
    0–0 Missed
  2. Published EFL Trophy · England
    AFC Wimbledon Barnet
    Home39.59% Draw24.78% Away35.63%
    0–0 Missed
  3. Published EFL Trophy · England
    AFC Wimbledon Barnet
    Home32.91% Draw22.70% Away44.39%
    0–0 Missed
  4. Published EFL Trophy · England
    AFC Wimbledon Barnet
    Home35.84% Draw22.85% Away41.30%
    0–0 Missed
  5. Published EFL Trophy · England
    AFC Wimbledon Barnet
    Home35.84% Draw22.86% Away41.30%
    0–0 Missed
  6. Published EFL Trophy · England
    AFC Wimbledon Barnet
    Home35.84% Draw22.86% Away41.30%
    0–0 Missed
  7. Published EFL Trophy · England
    AFC Wimbledon Barnet
    Home35.86% Draw22.82% Away41.32%
    0–0 Missed
  8. Published EFL Trophy · England
    AFC Wimbledon Barnet
    Home35.39% Draw22.89% Away41.72%
    0–0 Missed
  9. Published EFL Trophy · England
    AFC Wimbledon Barnet
    Home35.39% Draw22.89% Away41.72%
    0–0 Missed
  10. Published EFL Trophy · England
    AFC Wimbledon Barnet
    Home36.52% Draw22.88% Away40.60%
    0–0 Missed
  11. Published EFL Trophy · England
    AFC Wimbledon Barnet
    Home36.52% Draw22.88% Away40.60%
    0–0 Missed
  12. Published EFL Trophy · England
    AFC Wimbledon Barnet
    Home36.37% Draw23.20% Away40.43%
    0–0 Missed
  13. Published EFL Trophy · England
    AFC Wimbledon Barnet
    Home58.36% Draw16.01% Away25.63%
    0–0 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.