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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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479graded matches
0.5594Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9475Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 21 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.7%8.9%79
10–20%16.3%13.1%191
20–30%24.7%23.7%535
30–40%34.4%33.0%206
40–50%44.9%47.5%177
50–60%54.7%59.5%116
60–70%64.4%66.2%68
70–80%76.0%87.9%33
80–90%83.7%61.1%18
90–100%94.4%100.0%14

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (479)

Updated 22 Oct 2026 · 09:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Friendlies · World
    China Tajikistan
    Home56.32% Draw24.26% Away19.42%
    0–1 Missed
  2. Published Friendlies · World
    China Tajikistan
    Home58.32% Draw23.96% Away17.72%
    0–1 Missed
  3. Published Friendlies · World
    China Tajikistan
    Home39.09% Draw27.06% Away33.85%
    0–1 Missed
  4. Published Friendlies · World
    China Tajikistan
    Home38.78% Draw27.19% Away34.03%
    0–1 Missed
  5. Published Friendlies · World
    China Tajikistan
    Home38.23% Draw27.45% Away34.32%
    0–1 Missed
  6. Published Friendlies · World
    China Tajikistan
    Home41.56% Draw27.58% Away30.86%
    0–1 Missed
  7. Published Friendlies · World
    China Tajikistan
    Home41.44% Draw27.66% Away30.90%
    0–1 Missed
  8. Published Friendlies · World
    China Tajikistan
    Home41.25% Draw27.70% Away31.05%
    0–1 Missed
  9. Published Friendlies · World
    China Tajikistan
    Home40.00% Draw28.20% Away31.80%
    0–1 Missed
  10. Published Friendlies · World
    China Tajikistan
    Home40.00% Draw28.20% Away31.80%
    0–1 Missed
  11. Published Friendlies · World
    China Tajikistan
    Home36.58% Draw27.16% Away36.26%
    0–1 Missed
  12. Published Friendlies · World
    China Tajikistan
    Home36.58% Draw27.16% Away36.26%
    0–1 Missed
  13. Published Friendlies · World
    China Tajikistan
    Home35.57% Draw29.15% Away35.27%
    0–1 Missed
  14. Published Friendlies · World
    China Tajikistan
    Home36.80% Draw26.39% Away36.80%
    0–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.