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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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496graded matches
0.5923Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9908Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 4 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.3%5.3%38
10–20%16.2%17.4%155
20–30%25.5%22.3%605
30–40%34.6%38.3%287
40–50%44.5%46.6%191
50–60%54.3%61.0%118
60–70%64.2%56.1%57
70–80%74.2%65.0%20
80–90%84.7%93.3%15
90–100%97.1%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (496)

Updated 04 Oct 2026 · 22:29 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published League One · China
    Changchun Yatai Yanbian Longding
    Home39.98% Draw25.40% Away34.62%
    Awaiting result
  2. Published League One · China
    Changchun Yatai Yanbian Longding
    Home39.97% Draw25.40% Away34.63%
    Awaiting result
  3. Published League One · China
    Changchun Yatai Yanbian Longding
    Home39.97% Draw25.40% Away34.63%
    Awaiting result
  4. Published League One · China
    Changchun Yatai Yanbian Longding
    Home40.06% Draw25.40% Away34.54%
    Awaiting result
  5. Published League One · China
    Changchun Yatai Yanbian Longding
    Home39.97% Draw25.40% Away34.63%
    Awaiting result
  6. Published League One · China
    Changchun Yatai Yanbian Longding
    Home42.51% Draw26.21% Away31.28%
    Awaiting result
  7. Published League One · China
    Changchun Yatai Yanbian Longding
    Home42.51% Draw26.21% Away31.28%
    Awaiting result
  8. Published League One · China
    Changchun Yatai Yanbian Longding
    Home42.55% Draw26.24% Away31.21%
    Awaiting result
  9. Published League One · China
    Changchun Yatai Yanbian Longding
    Home42.02% Draw26.28% Away31.70%
    Awaiting result
  10. Published League One · China
    Changchun Yatai Yanbian Longding
    Home42.00% Draw26.35% Away31.65%
    Awaiting result
  11. Published League One · China
    Changchun Yatai Yanbian Longding
    Home57.55% Draw24.50% Away17.95%
    Awaiting result

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.