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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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492graded matches
0.5532Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9363Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 8 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.0%8.9%90
10–20%15.8%13.2%257
20–30%24.6%25.2%497
30–40%34.8%33.7%193
40–50%44.7%46.1%154
50–60%54.6%52.9%102
60–70%64.3%67.0%91
70–80%74.2%77.4%53
80–90%85.5%79.3%29
90–100%94.3%100.0%10

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (492)

Updated 29 Oct 2026 · 08:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Jamaica
    Home47.77% Draw28.13% Away24.10%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Jamaica
    Home47.77% Draw28.13% Away24.10%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Jamaica
    Home34.99% Draw27.29% Away37.72%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Jamaica
    Home34.96% Draw27.37% Away37.67%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Jamaica
    Home40.05% Draw27.34% Away32.61%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Jamaica
    Home39.98% Draw27.45% Away32.57%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Jamaica
    Home39.98% Draw27.45% Away32.57%
    1–1 Missed
  8. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Jamaica
    Home40.11% Draw27.24% Away32.65%
    1–1 Missed
  9. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Jamaica
    Home37.37% Draw27.65% Away34.98%
    1–1 Missed
  10. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Jamaica
    Home37.37% Draw27.65% Away34.98%
    1–1 Missed
  11. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Jamaica
    Home35.10% Draw27.91% Away36.99%
    1–1 Missed
  12. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Jamaica
    Home35.10% Draw27.91% Away36.99%
    1–1 Missed
  13. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Jamaica
    Home35.09% Draw27.93% Away36.98%
    1–1 Missed
  14. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Jamaica
    Home49.09% Draw23.93% Away26.98%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.