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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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495graded matches
0.5968Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9960Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 5 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.7%4.3%47
10–20%16.2%14.2%169
20–30%25.1%26.6%590
30–40%34.6%35.7%258
40–50%44.5%42.9%203
50–60%54.8%52.3%111
60–70%64.6%63.9%61
70–80%74.9%74.2%31
80–90%83.0%80.0%10
90–100%93.8%100.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (494) · Earlier models (1)

Updated 24 Oct 2026 · 19:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Rio de Janeiro
    Home42.83% Draw26.02% Away31.15%
    0–4 Missed
  2. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Rio de Janeiro
    Home42.83% Draw26.01% Away31.15%
    0–4 Missed
  3. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Rio de Janeiro
    Home42.85% Draw26.00% Away31.15%
    0–4 Missed
  4. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Rio de Janeiro
    Home43.05% Draw25.99% Away30.95%
    0–4 Missed
  5. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Rio de Janeiro
    Home45.82% Draw25.96% Away28.22%
    0–4 Missed
  6. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Rio de Janeiro
    Home45.82% Draw25.96% Away28.22%
    0–4 Missed
  7. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Rio de Janeiro
    Home45.81% Draw25.97% Away28.22%
    0–4 Missed
  8. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Rio de Janeiro
    Home49.03% Draw25.56% Away25.41%
    0–4 Missed
  9. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Rio de Janeiro
    Home49.03% Draw25.56% Away25.41%
    0–4 Missed
  10. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Rio de Janeiro
    Home49.37% Draw25.43% Away25.21%
    0–4 Missed
  11. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Rio de Janeiro
    Home48.23% Draw25.61% Away26.17%
    0–4 Missed
  12. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Rio de Janeiro
    Home48.29% Draw25.61% Away26.10%
    0–4 Missed
  13. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Rio de Janeiro
    Home45.96% Draw23.80% Away30.23%
    0–4 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.