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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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491graded matches
0.5844Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9801Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 9 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.9%0.0%37
10–20%16.0%16.0%200
20–30%25.1%24.9%575
30–40%34.5%31.0%242
40–50%44.7%52.6%175
50–60%54.8%57.3%131
60–70%65.0%54.7%75
70–80%73.5%83.3%24
80–90%84.5%85.7%7
90–100%93.7%100.0%7

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (491)

Updated 19 Oct 2026 · 18:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Primera Division · El Salvador
    FAS Inca Aruba
    Home74.43% Draw17.27% Away8.31%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published Primera Division · El Salvador
    FAS Inca Aruba
    Home74.06% Draw17.51% Away8.43%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published Primera Division · El Salvador
    FAS Inca Aruba
    Home74.06% Draw17.51% Away8.43%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published Primera Division · El Salvador
    FAS Inca Aruba
    Home75.44% Draw16.87% Away7.69%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published Primera Division · El Salvador
    FAS Inca Aruba
    Home75.32% Draw16.94% Away7.74%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published Primera Division · El Salvador
    FAS Inca Aruba
    Home75.47% Draw16.85% Away7.68%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published Primera Division · El Salvador
    FAS Inca Aruba
    Home75.46% Draw16.86% Away7.68%
    1–1 Missed
  8. Published Primera Division · El Salvador
    FAS Inca Aruba
    Home75.00% Draw17.09% Away7.91%
    1–1 Missed
  9. Published Primera Division · El Salvador
    FAS Inca Aruba
    Home75.00% Draw17.09% Away7.91%
    1–1 Missed
  10. Published Primera Division · El Salvador
    FAS Inca Aruba
    Home71.36% Draw18.73% Away9.92%
    1–1 Missed
  11. Published Primera Division · El Salvador
    FAS Inca Aruba
    Home68.93% Draw19.68% Away11.39%
    1–1 Missed
  12. Published Primera Division · El Salvador
    FAS Inca Aruba
    Home69.91% Draw18.94% Away11.15%
    1–1 Missed
  13. Published Primera Division · El Salvador
    FAS Inca Aruba
    Home54.04% Draw24.18% Away21.78%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.