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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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480graded matches
0.5629Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9501Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 20 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.3%4.3%70
10–20%16.4%17.0%200
20–30%24.7%23.6%513
30–40%34.4%31.4%236
40–50%44.7%49.2%177
50–60%54.7%57.3%117
60–70%64.6%63.8%69
70–80%75.5%81.5%27
80–90%83.9%83.3%18
90–100%95.4%100.0%13

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (480)

Updated 21 Oct 2026 · 15:31 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Segunda División · Spain
    Cadiz Leganes
    Home33.28% Draw28.60% Away38.12%
    4–0 Missed
  2. Published Segunda División · Spain
    Cadiz Leganes
    Home33.32% Draw28.60% Away38.08%
    4–0 Missed
  3. Published Segunda División · Spain
    Cadiz Leganes
    Home33.51% Draw28.19% Away38.30%
    4–0 Missed
  4. Published Segunda División · Spain
    Cadiz Leganes
    Home32.50% Draw28.13% Away39.36%
    4–0 Missed
  5. Published Segunda División · Spain
    Cadiz Leganes
    Home37.17% Draw29.06% Away33.77%
    4–0 Correct pick
  6. Published Segunda División · Spain
    Cadiz Leganes
    Home37.17% Draw29.06% Away33.77%
    4–0 Correct pick
  7. Published Segunda División · Spain
    Cadiz Leganes
    Home41.08% Draw27.97% Away30.95%
    4–0 Correct pick
  8. Published Segunda División · Spain
    Cadiz Leganes
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  9. Published Segunda División · Spain
    Cadiz Leganes
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  10. Published Segunda División · Spain
    Cadiz Leganes
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  11. Published Segunda División · Spain
    Cadiz Leganes
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  12. Published Segunda División · Spain
    Cadiz Leganes
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  13. Published Segunda División · Spain
    Cadiz Leganes
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.