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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.6027Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0030Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.2%4.8%42
10–20%16.3%13.4%186
20–30%24.9%27.4%574
30–40%34.7%36.4%269
40–50%44.5%42.2%192
50–60%54.8%50.0%120
60–70%64.8%62.9%62
70–80%74.6%78.1%32
80–90%83.7%63.6%11
90–100%91.9%100.0%3

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (496) · Earlier models (1)

Updated 24 Oct 2026 · 16:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Serie D - Girone H · Italy
    Gladiator Turris
    Home28.81% Draw26.18% Away45.01%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published Serie D - Girone H · Italy
    Gladiator Turris
    Home29.74% Draw25.74% Away44.52%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published Serie D - Girone H · Italy
    Gladiator Turris
    Home29.74% Draw25.74% Away44.52%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published Serie D - Girone H · Italy
    Gladiator Turris
    Home44.72% Draw26.54% Away28.75%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published Serie D - Girone H · Italy
    Gladiator Turris
    Home44.72% Draw26.54% Away28.75%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published Serie D - Girone H · Italy
    Gladiator Turris
    Home44.72% Draw26.54% Away28.75%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published Serie D - Girone H · Italy
    Gladiator Turris
    Home44.72% Draw26.54% Away28.75%
    1–1 Missed
  8. Published Serie D - Girone H · Italy
    Gladiator Turris
    Home44.72% Draw26.53% Away28.75%
    1–1 Missed
  9. Published Serie D - Girone H · Italy
    Gladiator Turris
    Home47.90% Draw25.94% Away26.16%
    1–1 Missed
  10. Published Serie D - Girone H · Italy
    Gladiator Turris
    Home47.90% Draw25.94% Away26.16%
    1–1 Missed
  11. Published Serie D - Girone H · Italy
    Gladiator Turris
    Home51.92% Draw25.12% Away22.96%
    1–1 Missed
  12. Published Serie D - Girone H · Italy
    Gladiator Turris
    Home50.56% Draw25.38% Away24.06%
    1–1 Missed
  13. Published Serie D - Girone H · Italy
    Gladiator Turris
    Home52.04% Draw23.91% Away24.05%
    1–1 Missed
  14. Published Serie D - Girone H · Italy
    Gladiator Turris
    Home37.88% Draw25.07% Away37.05%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.