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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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493graded matches
0.5842Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9810Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 7 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.0%3.4%29
10–20%16.3%12.7%181
20–30%25.1%26.4%590
30–40%34.8%30.7%267
40–50%44.9%48.5%196
50–60%54.6%50.8%120
60–70%65.1%75.0%60
70–80%74.7%78.6%28
80–90%85.0%100.0%6
90–100%91.8%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (493)

Updated 11 Oct 2026 · 09:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 · Greece
    Tilikratis Agios Matthaios
    Home58.16% Draw25.14% Away16.70%
    0–1 Missed
  2. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 · Greece
    Tilikratis Agios Matthaios
    Home57.90% Draw25.05% Away17.04%
    0–1 Missed
  3. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 · Greece
    Tilikratis Agios Matthaios
    Home57.90% Draw25.05% Away17.05%
    0–1 Missed
  4. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 · Greece
    Tilikratis Agios Matthaios
    Home57.90% Draw25.05% Away17.05%
    0–1 Missed
  5. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 · Greece
    Tilikratis Agios Matthaios
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  6. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 · Greece
    Tilikratis Agios Matthaios
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  7. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 · Greece
    Tilikratis Agios Matthaios
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  8. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 · Greece
    Tilikratis Agios Matthaios
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  9. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 · Greece
    Tilikratis Agios Matthaios
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  10. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 · Greece
    Tilikratis Agios Matthaios
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  11. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 · Greece
    Tilikratis Agios Matthaios
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  12. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 · Greece
    Tilikratis Agios Matthaios
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  13. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 · Greece
    Tilikratis Agios Matthaios
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.