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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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489graded matches
0.5882Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9897Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 11 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%7.7%39
10–20%15.9%12.8%203
20–30%25.2%25.9%583
30–40%34.6%33.6%223
40–50%44.8%48.5%171
50–60%54.9%56.6%129
60–70%64.6%53.3%75
70–80%73.7%86.2%29
80–90%84.4%88.9%9
90–100%92.9%83.3%6

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (489)

Updated 19 Oct 2026 · 09:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 · Greece
    Iraklis Larissa Trikala
    Home34.67% Draw27.57% Away37.76%
    0–1 Correct pick
  2. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 · Greece
    Iraklis Larissa Trikala
    Home34.24% Draw27.40% Away38.36%
    0–1 Correct pick
  3. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 · Greece
    Iraklis Larissa Trikala
    Home34.24% Draw27.40% Away38.36%
    0–1 Correct pick
  4. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 · Greece
    Iraklis Larissa Trikala
    Home34.24% Draw27.40% Away38.36%
    0–1 Correct pick
  5. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 · Greece
    Iraklis Larissa Trikala
    Home34.24% Draw27.40% Away38.36%
    0–1 Correct pick
  6. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 · Greece
    Iraklis Larissa Trikala
    Home34.24% Draw27.41% Away38.35%
    0–1 Correct pick
  7. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 · Greece
    Iraklis Larissa Trikala
    Home34.24% Draw27.41% Away38.35%
    0–1 Correct pick
  8. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 · Greece
    Iraklis Larissa Trikala
    Home39.79% Draw27.66% Away32.55%
    0–1 Missed
  9. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 · Greece
    Iraklis Larissa Trikala
    Home39.79% Draw27.66% Away32.55%
    0–1 Missed
  10. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 · Greece
    Iraklis Larissa Trikala
    Home44.30% Draw27.32% Away28.38%
    0–1 Missed
  11. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 · Greece
    Iraklis Larissa Trikala
    Home43.55% Draw27.40% Away29.05%
    0–1 Missed
  12. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 · Greece
    Iraklis Larissa Trikala
    Home42.29% Draw29.18% Away28.54%
    0–1 Missed
  13. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 · Greece
    Iraklis Larissa Trikala
    Home43.80% Draw26.63% Away29.56%
    0–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.