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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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491graded matches
0.5871Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9832Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 9 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.6%2.0%50
10–20%16.2%17.2%203
20–30%24.9%25.6%555
30–40%34.5%33.3%237
40–50%44.8%45.7%184
50–60%54.8%53.1%130
60–70%65.0%59.7%67
70–80%74.9%80.8%26
80–90%84.6%92.3%13
90–100%95.5%100.0%8

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (491)

Updated 20 Oct 2026 · 21:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published FA WSL · England
    West Ham W Chelsea W
    Home6.65% Draw12.69% Away80.66%
    0–3 Correct pick
  2. Published FA WSL · England
    West Ham W Chelsea W
    Home6.55% Draw12.60% Away80.84%
    0–3 Correct pick
  3. Published FA WSL · England
    West Ham W Chelsea W
    Home6.56% Draw12.65% Away80.80%
    0–3 Correct pick
  4. Published FA WSL · England
    West Ham W Chelsea W
    Home6.54% Draw12.70% Away80.75%
    0–3 Correct pick
  5. Published FA WSL · England
    West Ham W Chelsea W
    Home6.72% Draw12.87% Away80.42%
    0–3 Correct pick
  6. Published FA WSL · England
    West Ham W Chelsea W
    Home6.74% Draw12.91% Away80.35%
    0–3 Correct pick
  7. Published FA WSL · England
    West Ham W Chelsea W
    Home6.53% Draw14.52% Away78.95%
    0–3 Correct pick
  8. Published FA WSL · England
    West Ham W Chelsea W
    Home5.85% Draw12.93% Away81.22%
    0–3 Correct pick
  9. Published FA WSL · England
    West Ham W Chelsea W
    Home5.85% Draw12.93% Away81.22%
    0–3 Correct pick
  10. Published FA WSL · England
    West Ham W Chelsea W
    Home5.21% Draw12.27% Away82.52%
    0–3 Correct pick
  11. Published FA WSL · England
    West Ham W Chelsea W
    Home7.48% Draw14.61% Away77.91%
    0–3 Correct pick
  12. Published FA WSL · England
    West Ham W Chelsea W
    Home7.35% Draw14.36% Away78.29%
    0–3 Correct pick
  13. Published FA WSL · England
    West Ham W Chelsea W
    Home14.42% Draw18.59% Away66.99%
    0–3 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.