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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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491graded matches
0.6012Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0046Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 9 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.0%0.0%37
10–20%16.0%18.7%203
20–30%25.1%26.3%575
30–40%34.4%30.6%235
40–50%44.7%48.6%175
50–60%54.7%53.7%134
60–70%65.2%53.9%76
70–80%73.6%79.2%24
80–90%84.5%85.7%7
90–100%93.2%100.0%7

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (491)

Updated 20 Oct 2026 · 00:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Acren-Lessines Union Namur
    Home46.57% Draw22.63% Away30.79%
    4–1 Correct pick
  2. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Acren-Lessines Union Namur
    Home46.74% Draw22.60% Away30.66%
    4–1 Correct pick
  3. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Acren-Lessines Union Namur
    Home46.74% Draw22.60% Away30.66%
    4–1 Correct pick
  4. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Acren-Lessines Union Namur
    Home46.74% Draw22.60% Away30.66%
    4–1 Correct pick
  5. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Acren-Lessines Union Namur
    Home46.69% Draw22.62% Away30.69%
    4–1 Correct pick
  6. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Acren-Lessines Union Namur
    Home46.69% Draw22.62% Away30.69%
    4–1 Correct pick
  7. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Acren-Lessines Union Namur
    Home46.68% Draw22.62% Away30.70%
    4–1 Correct pick
  8. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Acren-Lessines Union Namur
    Home47.67% Draw22.75% Away29.57%
    4–1 Correct pick
  9. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Acren-Lessines Union Namur
    Home47.67% Draw22.75% Away29.57%
    4–1 Correct pick
  10. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Acren-Lessines Union Namur
    Home49.51% Draw22.40% Away28.10%
    4–1 Correct pick
  11. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Acren-Lessines Union Namur
    Home48.50% Draw22.53% Away28.98%
    4–1 Correct pick
  12. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Acren-Lessines Union Namur
    Home50.06% Draw20.88% Away29.07%
    4–1 Correct pick
  13. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Acren-Lessines Union Namur
    Home36.38% Draw21.65% Away41.97%
    4–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.