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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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498graded matches
0.5855Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9830Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 2 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.2%4.0%50
10–20%15.5%17.1%170
20–30%25.1%25.5%585
30–40%34.5%34.3%271
40–50%44.6%41.6%190
50–60%53.9%54.5%112
60–70%64.6%63.5%63
70–80%75.0%81.8%33
80–90%84.7%93.3%15
90–100%94.7%80.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (498)

Updated 17 Oct 2026 · 20:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    UD San Fernando Estrella
    Home72.37% Draw18.28% Away9.35%
    3–0 Correct pick
  2. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    UD San Fernando Estrella
    Home72.22% Draw18.38% Away9.40%
    3–0 Correct pick
  3. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    UD San Fernando Estrella
    Home72.26% Draw18.34% Away9.40%
    3–0 Correct pick
  4. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    UD San Fernando Estrella
    Home72.26% Draw18.34% Away9.40%
    3–0 Correct pick
  5. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    UD San Fernando Estrella
    Home72.26% Draw18.34% Away9.40%
    3–0 Correct pick
  6. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    UD San Fernando Estrella
    Home72.26% Draw18.34% Away9.40%
    3–0 Correct pick
  7. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    UD San Fernando Estrella
    Home72.26% Draw18.35% Away9.40%
    3–0 Correct pick
  8. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    UD San Fernando Estrella
    Home75.46% Draw16.70% Away7.84%
    3–0 Correct pick
  9. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    UD San Fernando Estrella
    Home75.46% Draw16.70% Away7.84%
    3–0 Correct pick
  10. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    UD San Fernando Estrella
    Home76.06% Draw16.36% Away7.58%
    3–0 Correct pick
  11. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    UD San Fernando Estrella
    Home73.60% Draw17.44% Away8.96%
    3–0 Correct pick
  12. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    UD San Fernando Estrella
    Home75.73% Draw15.80% Away8.47%
    3–0 Correct pick
  13. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    UD San Fernando Estrella
    Home65.55% Draw25.34% Away9.11%
    3–0 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.