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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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491graded matches
0.6012Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0048Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 9 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.0%0.0%37
10–20%16.0%19.1%204
20–30%25.1%25.9%575
30–40%34.5%31.3%233
40–50%44.7%48.3%176
50–60%54.7%53.7%134
60–70%65.2%53.9%76
70–80%73.6%79.2%24
80–90%84.5%85.7%7
90–100%93.2%100.0%7

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (491)

Updated 20 Oct 2026 · 03:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    Marino Playas Sotavento
    Home51.11% Draw25.54% Away23.35%
    6–1 Correct pick
  2. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    Marino Playas Sotavento
    Home51.00% Draw25.56% Away23.44%
    6–1 Correct pick
  3. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    Marino Playas Sotavento
    Home66.99% Draw19.82% Away13.19%
    6–1 Correct pick
  4. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    Marino Playas Sotavento
    Home67.03% Draw19.79% Away13.18%
    6–1 Correct pick
  5. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    Marino Playas Sotavento
    Home67.03% Draw19.79% Away13.18%
    6–1 Correct pick
  6. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    Marino Playas Sotavento
    Home67.03% Draw19.79% Away13.18%
    6–1 Correct pick
  7. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    Marino Playas Sotavento
    Home67.03% Draw19.79% Away13.18%
    6–1 Correct pick
  8. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    Marino Playas Sotavento
    Home67.03% Draw19.79% Away13.18%
    6–1 Correct pick
  9. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    Marino Playas Sotavento
    Home65.46% Draw20.79% Away13.75%
    6–1 Correct pick
  10. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    Marino Playas Sotavento
    Home65.46% Draw20.79% Away13.75%
    6–1 Correct pick
  11. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    Marino Playas Sotavento
    Home54.04% Draw24.59% Away21.37%
    6–1 Correct pick
  12. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    Marino Playas Sotavento
    Home52.51% Draw24.91% Away22.57%
    6–1 Correct pick
  13. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    Marino Playas Sotavento
    Home52.90% Draw24.60% Away22.50%
    6–1 Correct pick
  14. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
    Marino Playas Sotavento
    Home60.06% Draw25.55% Away14.39%
    6–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.