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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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493graded matches
0.5540Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9376Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 7 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%8.0%88
10–20%15.8%13.8%260
20–30%24.6%25.2%497
30–40%34.7%33.0%194
40–50%44.7%47.1%155
50–60%54.6%53.5%101
60–70%64.4%64.9%94
70–80%74.5%77.4%53
80–90%85.4%82.1%28
90–100%94.4%100.0%9

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (493)

Updated 29 Oct 2026 · 10:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Serie C - Girone A · Italy
    Treviso Giana Erminio
    Home51.96% Draw25.95% Away22.09%
    0–0 Missed
  2. Published Serie C - Girone A · Italy
    Treviso Giana Erminio
    Home54.27% Draw25.47% Away20.27%
    0–0 Missed
  3. Published Serie C - Girone A · Italy
    Treviso Giana Erminio
    Home53.18% Draw26.19% Away20.63%
    0–0 Missed
  4. Published Serie C - Girone A · Italy
    Treviso Giana Erminio
    Home53.78% Draw26.05% Away20.18%
    0–0 Missed
  5. Published Serie C - Girone A · Italy
    Treviso Giana Erminio
    Home48.98% Draw27.75% Away23.27%
    0–0 Missed
  6. Published Serie C - Girone A · Italy
    Treviso Giana Erminio
    Home48.98% Draw27.75% Away23.27%
    0–0 Missed
  7. Published Serie C - Girone A · Italy
    Treviso Giana Erminio
    Home48.99% Draw27.74% Away23.27%
    0–0 Missed
  8. Published Serie C - Girone A · Italy
    Treviso Giana Erminio
    Home48.49% Draw27.35% Away24.16%
    0–0 Missed
  9. Published Serie C - Girone A · Italy
    Treviso Giana Erminio
    Home48.49% Draw27.35% Away24.16%
    0–0 Missed
  10. Published Serie C - Girone A · Italy
    Treviso Giana Erminio
    Home49.27% Draw27.21% Away23.51%
    0–0 Missed
  11. Published Serie C - Girone A · Italy
    Treviso Giana Erminio
    Home48.06% Draw27.43% Away24.52%
    0–0 Missed
  12. Published Serie C - Girone A · Italy
    Treviso Giana Erminio
    Home48.16% Draw27.38% Away24.46%
    0–0 Missed
  13. Published Serie C - Girone A · Italy
    Treviso Giana Erminio
    Home58.46% Draw26.89% Away14.65%
    0–0 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.